Production and Operations Management 生产经营管理.pptVIP

Chapter 11Forecasting Demand Management Qualitative Forecasting Methods Simple Weighted Moving Average Forecasts Exponential Smoothing Simple Linear Regression Demand Management Independent Demand: What a firm can do to manage it. Can take an active role to influence demand. Can take a passive role and simply respond to demand. Types of Forecasts Qualitative (Judgmental) Quantitative Time Series Analysis Causal Relationships Simulation Components of Demand Average demand for a period of time Trend Seasonal element Cyclical elements Random variation Autocorrelation Finding Components of Demand Qualitative Methods Delphi Method l. Choose the experts to participate. There should be a variety of knowledgeable people in different areas. 2. Through a questionnaire (or E-mail), obtain forecasts (and any premises or qualifications for the forecasts) from all participants. 3. Summarize the results and redistribute them to the participants along with appropriate new questions. 4. Summarize again, refining forecasts and conditions, and again develop new questions. 5. Repeat Step 4 if necessary. Distribute the final results to all participants. Time Series Analysis Time series forecasting models try to predict the future based on past data. You can pick models based on: 1. Time horizon to forecast 2. Data availability 3. Accuracy required 4. Size of forecasting budget 5. Availability of qualified personnel Simple Moving Average Formula The simple moving average model assumes an average is a good estimator of future behavior. The formula for the simple moving average is: Simple Moving Average Problem (1) Question: What are the 3-week and 6-week moving average forecasts for demand? Assume you only have 3 weeks and 6 weeks of actual demand data for the respective forecasts Simple Moving Average Problem (2) Data Question: What is the 3 week moving average forecast for this data? Assume you only have 3 weeks and 5 weeks of actual demand data for the respective fo