Report SnowRatio Tool Development Weather报告雪比工具发展天气.pptVIP

A Simple Physically Based Snowfall Algorithm Daniel K. Cobb Jr. Science Operations Officer WFO – Caribou, ME Introduction Motivation and Goals Description of Algorithm Example Case Summary Future Work References Questions Motivation Goals Improve on 10:1 snow ratio assumption Incorporate aerial and temporal variation of snow ratio over a storm. Motivation Goals Develop a Snow Amount SmartTool for GFE Physically based population of snowfall from QPF Good base tool in terms of collaboration Develop complimentary snow amount/ratio code for use in Bufkit Excellent Interpretation/interrogation tool for forecaster Motivation Goals HISTORY Initial interest began in 2000. Idea further inspired by Top-Down microphysics of Baumgardt Crosshair approach of Waldstreicher Canadian snow ratio decision tree algorithm by Dubè Snow density diagnostic of Roebber Algorithm SNOW CRYSTAL BASICS Crystal habit depends Primarily on temperature Secondarily on relative humidity Largest crystals (dendrites) form at temperatures between (-12°C and -18°C) Crystal growth rates are also the largest in this temperature range. Algorithm Algorithm To a first approximation, the amount of cloud mixing ratio formed in any layer will be related to its relative humidity and vertical motion. This provides a basis for inferring the amount of crystal habit any one layer will contribute. Algorithm FOUR STEP PROCESS Layer snow ratios are calculated for all available NWP levels based on temperature. The vertical motion of each layer is scaled based on the relative humidity of the layer. A column total vertical motion is calculated as the sum of the scaled layer vertical motion. The layer snow ratios from step one are weighted by the percent of column vertical motion and summed to obtain a base snow ratio. The base snow ratio is then multiplied by the QPF to obtain snowfall. Algorithm Example Algorithm Example Algorithm Example Algorithm Example Algorithm Example Example (2004Jan19) L