Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth Eric Kaufmann将宗教继承地球埃里克考夫曼.pptVIP

Evolutionary Theory: Cultural Genes (individual), Memes (collective) 3 Memes of modernity create environment that favours secularism: Rationality, Individuality, Equality. All are double edged: Liberty: toleration of illiberal groups as well as promoting self-autonomy Equality: mass democracy as well as an end to religious hierarchies Rationality: allows religious groups to communicate with each other, to better mobilize against secularism and improve retention, hardening boundaries Major recent changes: Mimetic change #1: Rationality (post-1968, and post-1989) – weakens ‘secular religions’ of socialism and anarchism Mimetic change #2 – Equality -‘Cultural turn’ of 1960s Left now opposes rationality, secularism, science Evolutionary Theory: Demographic Nonmimetic change alters environment: demographic transition Educated and wealthy used to have more surviving offspring until late 1800s (Skirbekk) Neither poverty nor religiosity conferred growth advantage. Now both do. Religious grow: 1) directly through pronatalism/traditional gender roles (i.e. Haredim, Mormons); 2) indirectly, through poverty/low education which is linked to traditional gender roles and higher fertility (i.e. Muslim immigrants in Europe, US evangelicals in 20th c, religious worldwide) Will We All Be Haredi? ‘r’-strategy: C G Darwin’s The Next Million Years (1953)? But burgeoning religious memes like Haredim will encounter growing resistance Negative collective effects of religious fervour (poorer strategic decisions by religious states, slower technological progress) may render religious societies weaker, causing emigration or even higher mortality The Contradictions of Liberalism Could have equilibrium of religious producers of people and secular consumers of them (i.e. McNeill on countryside surplus and urban mortality) ‘K’-Equilibrium: Advanced weaponry protects; superior economies attract labour; assimilation secularizes But environment has changed, favouring ‘r’-strategies ‘r’-groups c