The Fiscal and Monetary History of Chile 1960 2010智利的财政和货币历史2010 1960.pptVIP

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The Fiscal and Monetary History of Chile 1960 2010智利的财政和货币历史2010 1960.ppt

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The Fiscal and Monetary History of Chile 1960 2010智利的财政和货币历史2010 1960

The Fiscal and Monetary History of Chile 1960 - 2010 Rodrigo Caputo and Diego Saravia Comments by Andrew Powell Research Dept., IDB My own views, not those of the IDB, its Board if the countries they represent Great Project As I understand it the idea is to apply a variety of modern economic tools to understand better fiscal and monetary history of LA LA: has such a rich history, economic tools can help to understand and LA can help us to understand better those tools… Message to organizers: lets have a future event at the IDB! The Case of Chile Fascinating history, a true laboratory.. Incredible plot with a cast of many strong characters and eventually an (almost) Hollywood ending… The case illustrates the need to combine fiscal and monetary history (not just money) Comments on the Paper Interesting paper, I learnt a lot… Some comments on what the authors do Some comments on what authors do not do… Five “Phases” Identified 1952-1970. Import substitution strategy, growth almost 4%, budget deficit around 3% and inflation almost 30%, increasing economic inefficiencies, slow motion crises and some reforms… 1971-1973. Democratic socialism, expansion of government, increasing direct control in key industries, price controls, but monetary financing and inflation soared, hyperinflation 1974-1983. Stabilization attempts, first more gradual, then deeper, economic reforms, late 1970’s high growth but increased foreign increased foreign debt, non-tradable boom, financial liberalization but weak supervision, early 1980’s devaluation and crisis, bail out of financial sector, need to generate fiscal surpluses 1984-1992: Growth up to 6.2%, fiscal surplus around 1.5% and inflation averaged 20%, improved financial regulation 1992 to date: development of inflation targeting regime, fall (finally) in inflation, flexible exchange rate and fiscal rules, stabilization fund for copper and reduction in public debt Economic Tools Appliedby the Authors Import substitution: Democratic so