The Goal Theory of Constraints Central Washington 约束的目标理论中华盛顿.pptVIP

The Goal Theory of Constraints Presented by Adam Bogart Jay Smith Chapter 13—Alex Hits the Trail Alex begins his 10 mile hike to Devil’s Gulch with the scouts. Gaps appear. Alex meets Herbie. What are statistical fluctuations and dependent events? The Plan Leave at 8:30 in a single file formation with Alex at the leading the way. The average person walks around 2 miles per hour. Allow hour and a half for breaks and lunch. Arrive at Devil’s Gulch at 3:30 “No sweat.” What Happened was… Gaps appear immediately in the line. Alex moved to the back of the line. This is where he meets Herbie. Starts to ponder what Jonah told him about Dependent Events and Statistical Fluctuations. *Gee, What are dependent events and statistical Fluctuations? Dependent Events An event , or a series of events, that must take place before another can begin. The hike to Devil’s Gulch dependent events was the line in which the scouts walked. The first person in line must walk the trail before the person behind them could. *Well that’s great, but what about statistical fluctuations? Statistical Fluctuations A task in which the time to complete the task will vary each time the task is performed. This variance is known as a statistical fluctuation. Alex figured that the boys were walking and average of 2 mph. At times some were walking 2.5 mph and at other times some were walking 1.2 mph. The variance in speeds statistical fluctuations. * So, What does this have to do with the hike? Herbie and the Hill Herbie was slowing everyone behind him down as they were climbing a long steep hill. When Alex got to the top of it he realized the leader was a half a mile ahead of them. * What happened? How did they get so far ahead? Putting it Together The hike was a set of dependent events in combination with statistical fluctuations. Each hiker speed fluctuates at different times. A gap occurs when a slower than average fluctuation happens and the ability to walk faster than