World Food Supply and Demand for the Next Half 世界粮食供求为下半年.pptVIP

World Food Supply and Demand for the Next Half-CenturySome Alternative Scenarios Text extracted from The World Food Problem Leathers and Foster, 2004 Apocalypse Now? Famine is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (War, Famine, Pestilence, Death) What will the future be? Will the progress of the last 30 years continue? Or are we on the brink of catastrophe? The 6 “P”s Major factors: Population Prosperity Productivity Pollution Interplay of these will determine: Price of food Humanity’s hope to influence the future: Policy Two Views of the Future Establishment view FAO World Bank International Food Price Institute U.S. Department of Agriculture Antiestablishment View David Pimentel, Cornell University World Watch Institute Establishment View World Agriculture production continues to grow World population growing more slowly Income/person continues to grow Thus no catastrophic changes Confidence in technology of the future Policies need to support progress Future generations will be more prosperous Antiestablishment View Possibility of environmental catastrophe Erosion Land degradation Water shortage for irrigation Rising sea levels from global warming Continued slow yield growth Pessimistic about technology Sweeping policy changes needed Radical economic and political restructuring Future generations will suffer We are “eating the seed” Need radical reduction in consumption Establishment View Scenario50 Years From Now Population 60% higher Average income will double Calories/capita will increase by 15% More meat Total food demand will increase by 108% Total food supply will increase by 110% Ag land increases 13% Yields increase 86% Undernutrition will decline Incomes higher, prices lower If Assumptions Change If lower population growth: 74% increase in food 72% price decline! If higher population growth or lower yield growth: Demand rises faster than supply Prices rise substantially But incomes rise more than prices Modest increase in calories/person A