World Population Problems Saint Martins University世界人口问题圣马丁大学.pptVIP

World Population Problems Nature of the World Population Problem Stable population for 8,000 years Survival precarious for most people Since 1650 there has been rapid population growth Population variables Population increases are a function of three variables, i.e. fertility, mortality and migration Population formula: Population (now) = Population (then) + (births-deaths) +/- Migration World Population Growth 8,000 BC to 1650 AD = 500 million 1650 AD to 2000 AD = 5.6 billion 50,000 new mouths to feed every year in first period 50,000 new mouths to feed every 6 minutes today. 90 million people added every year today Malthus’ Explanation of Population Growth Thomas Malthus Essay on Population Population grows as exponential rate (2,4,8,16,32,64) Food production grows at arithmetical rate (1,2,3,4,5) Population increases faster that food production Validity of Malthus’ Predictions Malthus proved to be poor prophet in 18th and 19th C Famine, disease, war did not result in decreased world population Was Malthus premature? Paul Erlich’s Population Bomb (neo-Malthusian position) vs.Julian Simon’s Population as the Ultimate Resource. (cornucopian position) Neo-Malthusian position Population growth straining the world’s resources Destruction of forests for development and/or food production Energy and mineral consumption taxes resources Over-fishing Widening gap between rich and poor Inadequate development, refugee problems, donor fatigue Belief in environmental responsibility leading to sustainable growth Cornucopian position Life expectancy doubled in 20th C (30yrs to 60 yrs) Global health and productivity expanding Overpopulation is scare talk of environmentalists The real issue of poverty not breeding Technology will solve all human problems Population growth creates jobs, opens markets, expands opportunities Ecologists want sustainability; cornucopian economists want economic growth, exploitation of markets and resources Reasons for Rapid Population Gr