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Central European tornado environments as viewed from a potential vorticity and Lagrangian perspective.pdf

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Central European tornado environments as viewed from a potential vorticity and Lagrangian perspective.pdf

Atmospheric Research 101 (2011) 31–45 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Atmospheric Research j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / a t m o s Central European tornado environments as viewed from a potential vorticity and Lagrangian perspective Michael A. Graf a,?, Michael Sprenger a, Richard W. Moore b a Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland b Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, United States article info Article history: Received 4 August 2010 Received in revised form 21 December 2010 Accepted 9 January 2011 Keywords: Europe Tornado Severe storm indicators Forcing Trajectory analysis abstract ECMWF analysis data in conjunction with infrared satellite imagery and surface weather analyses from the German Weather Service are used to investigate 15 significant central European tornadoes (F2 intensity on the Fujita scale) that occurred in 2005 and 2006. The primary goals of the work are to: (i) determine the typical synoptic and mesoscale environments that are conducive to European tornadogenesis; (ii) compare and contrast the said environments with those found in the central United States (US), with a specific focus on severe storm predictors; and (iii) elucidate a methodology for the real-time forecasting of these destructive storms that, in addition to the use of severe storm predictors, leans heavily on the potential vorticity (PV) and Lagrangian frameworks of analysis. With the caveats that there is significant case-to-case variability and the sample size is relatively small, the results illustrate that most European tornadoes form close to (within 200 km of) a distinct upper-level PV anomaly and a majority under the cyclonic side of an upper-level jet streak. Lower-level forcing, in the form of surface fronts, is also found to be present in a number of cases. With regards to severe storm predictors (convective available potential energy, storm-relative helicity and the ener