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Mathematical Biosciences 282 (2016) 204–214
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Mathematical Biosciences
journal homepage: /locate/mbs
The effect of delay on contact tracing
Johannes Müller a,b,?, Bendix Koopmann a
a TU München, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Boltzmannstr. 3, D-85747 Garching, Germany b Helmholtz Center Munich, Institute for Computational Biology, Ingolst?dter Landstr. 1, D-85764 Neuherberg, Germany
article info
Article history: Received 1 March 2016 Revised 22 October 2016 Accepted 24 October 2016 Available online 25 October 2016
Keywords: Stochastic epidemic Contact tracing Branching process Reproduction number
abstract
We consider a model for an infectious disease in the onset of an outbreak. We introduce contact tracing incorporating a tracing delay. The effect of randomness in the delay and the effect of the length of this delay in comparison to the infectious period of the disease respectively to a latency period on the effect of tracing, given e.g. by the change of the reproduction number, is analyzed. We focus particularly on the effect of randomness in the tracing delay.
? 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Contact tracing resp. partner noti?cation programs are believed to be of central importance for the control of many infectious diseases: infected persons are questioned for recent potentially infectious contacts. In this way, further infected and infectious persons are identi?ed in a targeted way, often quite early after infection. These persons can be treated and isolated, and the number of further infections can be reduced. For some emerging infections, data analysis indicates that contact tracing has proven to be a valuable measure – e.g. in the case of SARS [14] or Ebola [18]. For other infections, such as tuberculosis, contacts may be this casual that they are hardly recognized; in these cases it is under debate if contact tracing pays [4,7,20]. Still, our understanding of the effectiveness of contact t
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