基于两点估计法的有源配电网概率潮流.docVIP

基于两点估计法的有源配电网概率潮流 计算方法研究(* 柳永妍1，乐健1，高鹏2，刘开培1 （1. 武汉大学 电气工程学院，武汉 430072；2. 国家电网北京市电力公司，北京 1000031） 摘要：高渗透率分布式电源接入是未来配电网的发展趋势，传统确定性潮流计算方法无法计及分布式电源给配电网潮流造成的波动性和随机性。为解决该问题，提出了基于两点估计法的有源配电网概率潮流计算方法。基于概率统计理论，建立配电网分布式电源的概率模型，在前推回代法的基础上，采用两点估计法进行含分布式电源配电网的概率潮流计算，可靠计入了分布式电源和用电负荷波动对潮流计算的影响。在IEEE33节点系统中的仿真结果表明，两点估计法能利用较少的估计点获得与蒙特卡罗法相同精度的结果，且具有求解速度快的优点。 关键词：有源配电网; 概率潮流计算; 分布式电源; 两点估计法 中图分类号：TM711 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001-1390(2017)05-0000-00 A study of probabilistic load flow calculation in active distribution network based on two-point estimation method Liu Yongyan1, Le Jian1, Gao Peng2, Liu Kaipei1 (1. School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China. 2. State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company, Beijing 100031, China) Abstract：The integration of distribution generation with high penetration is the future development trend of distribution network, the certainty load flow calculation cannot deal with the volatility and randomness on the power flow in distribution network that is brought by distributed generation. To solve this problem, this paper proposes to build the probability model of distributed generation based on the theories of probability and statistics. On the basis of forward-backward sweep method and by considering the influences posed by the fluctuation of distributed generation and electrical load on the load flow calculation, the probabilistic power flow calculation of distribution network with distributed generations based on the two-point estimation method is proposed. The simulation result of the implementation of this method on an IEEE 33-bus test system shows that the two-point estimation method can achieve the same precision as that of the Monte Carlo method while has the advantage of fast resolving speed. Keywords：active distribution network, probabilistic load flow calculation, distributed power supply, two-point estimation method 0　引 言 为满足日益增长的电力需求，高渗透率分布式电源接入配电网运行将是今后配电网发展的必然趋势。分布式电源的接入使得原有的辐射型配