投资学课件ap12.pptVIP

CHAPTER 12 Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis Framework of Analysis Fundamental Analysis Approach to Fundamental Analysis Domestic and global economic analysis Industry analysis Company analysis Why use the top-down approach Global Economic Considerations Performance in countries and regions is highly variable Political risk Exchange rate risk Sales Profits Stock returns Table 12.1 Economic Performance, 2006 Figure 12.1 Change in Real Exchange Rate: Dollar Versus Major Currencies. 1999-2006 Key Economic Variables Gross domestic product Employment Inflation Interest rates Budget Deficits Consumer sentiment Figure 12.2 SP 500 Versus EPS Estimate Factors Determining the Level of Interest Rates Supply of funds from savers Demand for funds from businesses Government’s net supply and/or demand for funds Expected rate of inflation Figure 12.3 Determination of the Equilibrium Real Rate of Interest Demand Shocks Demand An event that affects the demand for goods and services Reduction in tax rates Increases in the money supply Increases in government spending Increases in foreign export demand Supply Shocks Supply An event that influences production capacity and costs Changes in the price of imported oil Freezes Floods Droughts Changes in the wage rates Fiscal Policy Government spending and taxing actions Direct policy Slowly implemented Monetary Policy Manipulation of the money supply to influence economic activity Initial feedback effects Tools of monetary policy Open market operations( federal funds rate) Discount rate Reserve requirements Supply-Side Policies Supply-siders focus on incentives and marginal tax rates Lowering tax rates will elicit more investment Improve incentives to work The Business Cycle Recurring patterns of recession and recovery—business cycles Peak Trough Industry relationship to business cycles Cyclical Defensive Economic Indicators Leading Indicators - tend to rise and fall in advance of the economy Examples Avg. weekly hours of produ