投资银行在产业中的应用【26页】.pptVIP

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投资银行在产业中的应用【26页】.ppt

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投资银行在产业中的应用【26页】.ppt

* * L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Personal Folders\BLUX\Tim Schwarz\Utility Industry Presentation.ppt\A2XP\16 SEP 2005\5:55 PM\1 Investment Banking View of the Utility Industry 21 September 2005 投资银行在产业中的应用 Table of Contents L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Personal Folders\BLUX\Tim Schwarz\Utility Industry Presentation.ppt\A2XP\16 SEP 2005\5:55 PM\2 Section 1 Utility Sector Update Section 2 Perspectives on Recent Strategic Activity Section 3 Energy Policy Act Section 4 Transmission Environment Update Appendix A Bio Timothy R. Schwarz Section 1 Utility Sector Update L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Personal Folders\BLUX\Tim Schwarz\Utility Industry Presentation.ppt\A2XP\16 SEP 2005\5:55 PM\4 Utility Sector Update A Brave New World of Growth is Emerging… L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Personal Folders\BLUX\Tim Schwarz\Utility Industry Presentation.ppt\A2XP\16 SEP 2005\5:55 PM\5 Growth stocks are starting to make a comeback after 5 consecutive years of trailing value stocks Year-to-date performance supports our view, as growth, measured by the Barra indexes, has marginally outperformed value. More telling could be that growth has triumphed over value during each of the last six months However, unlike past rebounds in growth stocks, we expect a GARP orientation to dominate during this cycle Earnings growth and dividend growth have reconnected after the long absence that defined the 1990s 1 Correlation Between Dividend Growth and Earnings Growth Source SP, Thomson Financial, Morgan Stanley Research Source SP, Thomson Financial, Morgan Stanley Research Source Ibbotson, Morgan Stanley Research Index of Relative Strength of Growth vs. Value Effectiveness Source Morgan Stanley Research Apr 77 Oct 84 Jul 94 Nifty Fifty Peak EnergySector Peak Kuwait/Recession Tech 2000 Growth Value Déjà Vu: We Think Growth Investors Are Looking at Something Akin to the 1994-1997 Period SP500 Growth Relative to SP 500 Value Annual Total Return Growth Value Utility Sector Update Utility Sector Sensitivity to I