盯住汇率制度及其持续期研究【26页】.pdfVIP

“” 2005 2 20 éè “ ” “ ” “ ” ’ ’ Ct Mt Pt β ψ ∑U = ∞ t=0 β tu(Ct , Ht , Mt Pt ) M t Pt Ht u = log Ct +χ 1?ε ???? Mt Pt ????1?ε ?η H 1+ψ t 1+ψ ε χ Ct Ch,t Ct = C Cα 1?α i,t h,t α Ci,t Pt = ???? Pi,t α ????α ???? Ph,t 1?α ????1?α Ph,t Pi,t ρ (1+ it? ) St (1+ it ) ρ Mt Ft Wt Tt (1+ it )Dt + ρ (1+ it? )St Ft Dt Dt+1 + St Ft+1 + M t+1 = (1 + it )Dt + ρ (1 + it? )St Ft + M t + Wt Ht ? Ph,tCh,t ? Pi,tCi,t + Tt P Ci,t+1 i,t+1 = βρ(1 + i? t +1 ) S t +1 St Pi ,t Ci ,t P Ci,t+1 i,t+1 = β (1 + it+1 )Pi,tCi,t θ →1 Pt θ ? 1 θ ?1 ?1 θ ?1 θ ?1 ?α θ Ci,tθ + (1?α )θ Ch,θt ? ?? C Cα 1?α i,t h,t /α α (1?α )1?α Ph,t Ch,t = 1?α α Pi ,t Ci ,t Pt +1Ct +1 = βρ (1 + i? t +1 ) S t +1 St Pt Ct α χit+1 = P Ci,t+1 i,t+1 M ?ε t +1 P1?ε t +1 H ψ t = αWt ηPi ,t Ci ,t Yt = At K φ t H 1?φ t 0φ 1 Yt Kt Max Kt ,Ht Π = Ph,tYt ? Wt H t ? Ph,t rt Kt rt 1 + rt = (1 + it ) Ph,t Ph ,t +1 (1? φ )Ph,t Yt Ht = Wt φ Yt Kt = rt At P1?φ h,t = ν Wt1?φ rtφ At ν = 1 (1 ? φ )1?φ φ φ C f ,t = C? f ,t σt St Ph,t C? f ,t St C ? f ,t Pi,t σt ηH ψ t Pi ,t Ci,t = α (1? φ )Ph,t Yt Ht Yt = C 1?α h,t ( C? f ,t σt St )α Ph,t 1?α Pi,t Pi,t = (St Pg,t )ω (St S gr,t Pr,t )1?ω Pg ,t Pr ,t S gr,t S gr,t Pr,t ω P Ci,t+1 i,t+1 = βρ(1 + i? t +1 ) Pi,t Ci,t (1 + it+1 ) = ρ (1 + i? t +1 ) Yt = C1?α h,t ( C ? f ,t σt St )α Ph,t ηH 1+ψ t Pi ,t Ci ,t = α (1 ? φ )( Ph,t Ch,t )1?α ( C? f ,t σt St )α Pt = S α t ( Pg ,t ω (S gr,t Pr ,t )1?ω )α P1?α h,t α α (1 ? α )1?α πh πg Ph,t = (1 + π h )t Ph,0 Pg,t = (1 + π g )t Pg,0 πh (1+ π h ) = Ph ,t +1 Ph,t = (β (1+ i? ))1?α (1+ π g )αω )ψ /(1+ψ ) (β (1+ i? ))1/(1+ψ ) ψ =1 Ct +1 = ???? βρ(1 + i? ) (1 + π g )ω ?? 3?α 2 α ?? Ct τ ∑Max τ τ t=0 β t (α log Ci,t + (1?α ) logCh,t + χ log( M t Pt ) ?η H 2 t 2 ) log Pt = (1?α )t log(1+ π h ) +αtω log(1 + π g ) + log α P Pα 1?α i,0 h,0 α (1?α )1?α Pi,tCi,t = [βρ (1 + i? )]t Pi,0Ci,0 Ph,t Ch,t = 1?α α [βρ (1 + i? )]t Pi,0Ci,0 log M t Pt = log α [ ρ (1 χ + i? ) ? 1] + log Pi ,t Ci,t ? log Pt ηH 2 t = α (1?φ ) (1?α )1?α ( C ? f ,t S )α 2 2α Pi,tCi,tσ t ε →1 Ci,0 = 1