Tumultuous Times.docVIP

Tumultuous Times 　　For those who are used to living in peace and tranquility， 2016 has been a year with much consternation. On the one hand， the post-Cold War global governance system is facing collapse. Rivalry between major powers has intensified， regional conflicts are on the rise， and the ever promising global integration process has seemingly become just a pipe dream. In the meantime， natural and manmade disasters such as the Zika epidemic and terrorism show a trend of “globalization.” On the other hand， after living in stability and prosperity for many years， some countries also face the reality of turning from vigorous growth to stagnation， turbulence and crisis. The existing world order is on the decline， but the new one is seemingly still hiding in the shadows. Right at a crossroads of history， several “black swans” have taken off from different corners of the globe. 　　Among them， Brexit and Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory are beyond any doubt the most stunning ones. Brexit represents the first major retrogressive step in Europe’s integration process， while the latter has not only become a weather vane of Western politics’ rightward turn， but also forecasts that U.S. isolationism may become the biggest alternative to the current U.S.-led global order. 　　The emergence of these “black swan”events is not without reason. Brexit is actually a normal response of Britain as an EU member against the backdrop of the EU being mired in internal and external troubles. Internally， the EU’s economic recovery is weak， and the welfare society it advocates cannot be sustained. Externally， the EU is incapable of fixing the Middle East migrant crisis and bearing the pressure of confronting Russia over Ukraine. In this context， sovereign state members of the bloc will naturally focus more on their own concerns than collective targets. 　　Britain for a long time has been dissatisfied with European integration. Many see Brexit as a result of British popu