资源型产业系统演化分析——以黄磷产业系统演化为例.pdfVIP

第二篇 行业循环经济关键技术 资源型产业系统演化分析——以黄磷产业系统演化为例* 郭颖， 胡山鹰， 陈定江 清华大学 化学工程系 生态工业研究中心，北京 100084 摘要：本文采用我国黄磷产量数据对产业系统演化过程进行Logistic方程拟合，结果表明中国黄磷产业系统演化 过程呈S型曲线，中国黄磷产量上限为95 万t/a。在此基础上，引入复杂适应系统理论，通过对黄磷产业系统中 相互作用的政府、黄磷企业、磷矿石企业、电力企业、环保机构等主体及主体间的流进行分析，识别黄磷产业系 统发展中的主要矛盾，预测黄磷产业系统将在多主体共同作用下向生态化方向发展，并且由于湿法磷酸的替代作 用而逐渐走向衰落。Logistic方程和复杂适应理论优势互补，为分析资源型产业系统演化提供了有效的方法。 关键词：黄磷，产业演化，Logistic，主体 Resources-oriented Industrial System Evolution Analysis ——Yellow Phosphorus Industrial System Evolution as an Example GUO Ying， HU Shan-ying ， CHEN Ding-jiang Center for Industrial Ecology，Department of Chemical Engineering，Tsinghua University，Beijing 100084 ，China Abstract: Yellow phosphorus production data of China are used to fit the industry evolution process by Logistic equation, and the result shows that the evolution process of Chinese yellow phosphorus industry presents S curve and yellow phosphorus product could not exceed 950kt/year. Complex adaptive system (CAS) theory is adopted, actions and interrelations of agents which includes the government, yellow phosphorus enterprises, phosphorus ore enterprises, power plants and environment organizations are analyzed, primary conflicts are recognized, and the development trend of yellow phosphorus industry system are forecasted: it should develop in ecological direction by the effects of multiagent interactions, and would decline for substitute of hydro phosphate. Combining Logistic equation and CAS theory, resources-oriented industry system evloution could be analyzed distinctly. Key words: yellow phosphorus industry, industry evolution, Logistic, agent 1.前言 资源型产业是基于自然资源(主要是地下的矿产资源和地上的动植物