Probability_v1.ppt

Probability Randomness and Chance Motivation We need concept of probability to make judgments about our hypotheses in the scientific method. Is the data consistent with our hypotheses? Example: Suppose an old drug cures 50 percent of the time. Our new drug cures 6 out of 10 patients. Is our new drug better? Random Phenomenon A phenomenon is random if individual outcomes are uncertain, but there is a regular distribution of outcomes in many repetitions. Toss a coin. Toss a die. Definition The probability of any outcome of a random phenomenon is the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions. Probability is a long-term frequency. Do simulation on web site. Symmetry Definition Some random phenomenon occur under a situation of equally likely outcomes: coin tossing, die tossing, lotteries, bingo, etc. The probability of rolling a 4 on a die is the ratio of the number of sides containing a 4 divided by the total number of sides. On a fair die this means 1/6. Sample Space Set of all possible outcomes is called the sample space, S. Coin toss: S={H, T} Die toss: S={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Toss coin twice: S={HH, TT, HT, TH} Event An event is a collection of outcomes. Die toss, event A={2, 4, 6}, even number of spots. Probability Probability of an event is a number between zero and one, 0= P(A) =1. P(A) = 1, means event has certainty. P(A) = 0, means event is impossible. P(A-Complement) = 1 – P(A), that is, the probability of not A is simply 1 minus the chance of A happening. Equally Likely Outcomes Probabilities under equally likely outcome case is simply the number of outcomes making up the event, divided by the number of outcomes in S. Example: A die toss, A={2, 4, 6}, so P(A) = 3/ 6 = 1/2 = .5 Example: Coin toss, A={H}, P(A) = 1/2= .5 Counting Problems How many arrangements of two digits, 0-9 ? Ans: 10*10 = 100 How many phone numbers in an area code (7 digits)? Ans: 10 raised to 7th power, minus number of ineligible numbers,