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-MIZUHO日本经济展望.pdf

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-MIZUHO日本经济展望

Economic Outlook for FY2004, FY2005 and FY2006 (Revised to reflect the Second Preliminary Quarterly Estimates of GDP for the Oct-Dec quarter of 2004) March 2005 The Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. (MHRI) has revised its economic outlook for FY2004, FY2005 and nd QE”) for the FY2006 subsequent to the release of The Second Preliminary Quarterly Estimates of GDP (“2 Oct-Dec quarter of 2004. In comparison to MHRI’s previous Economic Outlook for FY2004, FY2005 and FY2006 released on February 18, 2005, we have revised the forecast on Japan’s economic growth to reflect a major statistical change regarding Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP). Nevertheless, our outlook on the fundamental direction of the economy remains unchanged. The Overseas Economies The US Economy Moderate expansion around its potential rate of economic growth (2005: 3.4%, 2006: 3.3%) The Euro Zone Economy Structural adjustment pressures will serve as a drag upon growth (2005: 1.7%, 2006: 2.0%) The Asian Economies A recovery from mid-2005 as the corporate sector emerges out of an inventory adjustment cycle (2005: 6.2%, 2006: 6.6%) The Japanese Economy FY2004 The economy will emerge out of the doldrums and start to pick up (Real GDP growth 1.6%, nominal GDP growth 0.7%) FY2005 A moderate recovery driven by domestic private-sector demand (Real GDP growth 1.5%, nominal GDP grow