《公司财务》讲义-英文(PPT 58页).pptVIP

CORPORATE FINANCE LING-NAN OUYANG PROFESSOR OF FINANCE INSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY FINANCE SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIVERSITY Valuing International Cash Flows M ? [ E ( Cj,t ) × E ( Ej,t ) ] N j=1 PV = ? t=1 ( 1 + r )t E ( Cj,t ) = expected cash flows denominated in currency j to be received by parent in period t. E ( Ej,t ) = expected exchange rate at which currency j can be converted to RMB at the end of period t. r = weighted average cost of capital of parent. M = number of currencies. N = number of periods. Regression Model and Expectation (1) Regression: measure relationships between variables when establishing policies. EXPt = b0 + b1 × USDt-1 + b2 × GNPt-1 + ??? + ut. EXPt = % change in China exports to the U.S.. b0 = a constant. USD = % change in the value of U.S. dollar. b1 = regression coefficient measuring 1% change in USDt-1 will lead to x% change in EXPt. GNP = % change in the U.S. GNP. B2 = regression coefficient measuring 1% change in GNPt-1 will lead to x% change in EXPt. ut = an error term. Regression Model and Expectation (2) If b0 = 0.002, b1= 0.08, b2 = 0.36, USD1-1 = 5%, GNP1-1 = -1%, if insert these figures into the regression model, EXP1 = 3.84%. It means that one year later China exports to the U.S. will increase 3.84%. Equilibrium Spot Exchange Rate E ( RMB / $1 ) S E0 D ? Q0 Q of $ When D for $ = S of $, Q0 = the equilibrium quantity of $, E0 = the equilibrium spot exchange rate. Price Elasticity of Demand and Future Spot Exchange Rate E = ( ΔQ / Q ) / ( ΔP / P ). E = price elasticity of demand. Q = quantity of goods demanded. P = price. ΔQ = change in Q demanded for a change in P ( ΔP ). If E 1, total spending goes up when P declines. E for $ could have an impact on the future spot exchange rate of $ and RMB. B