Accomplishments and Challenges in the Chesapeake Bay Program Watershed and Estuary Models.pdfVIP

Proceedings of the Second Joint Meeting, Coastal Environmental Science and Technology (CEST) Panel of the United States-Japan Cooperative Program in Natural Resources (UJNR), October 25-29. National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland. 2000 Accomplishments and Challenges in the Chesapeake Bay Program: Watershed and Estuary Models Donald F. Boesch University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science P.O. Box 775, Cambridge, Maryland 21613 USA boesch@ ABSTRACT The reduction of nutrient over-enrichment (eutrophication) is the most important undertaking in the restoration of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. Efforts toward this end are guided and evaluated though extensive use of linked simulation models of the airshed, watershed and estuary. These models track the inputs of nutrients through the watershed and into the bay and predict the consequences to water quality and estuarine food chains. As the Chesapeake Bay Program moves beyond an important milestone—the year 2000—watershed models will have to perform effectively on smaller scales in order to effectively guide land use and waste management decisions. Estuary models will have to more effectively address the effects on higher trophic levels. Advancements in both the watershed and estuary models require a closer coupling among modeling, monitoring and research. Key words: Chesapeake Bay, Modeling, Watershed, Estuary 1. INTRODUCTION At the First Joint Meeting of the Coastal Environmental Science and Technology Panel (CEST) of UJNR held at Hayama, Japan, I presented an overview of the large-scale ecosystem restoration and management of the Chesapeake Bay (Boesch 1998). This largest estuary in the United States has been greatly altered, principally by eutrophication (nutrient pollution), sedimentation, habitat destruction, and overharvesting of fish and shellfish. However, in the 1980s major commitments w