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ERL GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION
Global potential to increase crop production through water management in rainfed agriculture
This article has been downloaded from IOPscience. Please scroll down to see the full text article.
2009 Environ. Res. Lett. 4 044002
(/1748-9326/4/4/044002)
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IOP PUBLISHING ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009) 044002 (9pp) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044002
Global potential to increase crop
production through water management in
rainfed agriculture
Stefanie Rost1, Dieter Gerten1,4, Holger Hoff1,2, Wolfgang Lucht1,
Malin Falkenmark3 and Johan Rockstro?m2,3
1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain of Climate Impacts and
Vulnerabilities, Telegraphenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
2 Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Kra?ftriket 2B, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
3 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
E-mail: gerten@pik-potsdam.de
Received 23 February 2009
Accepted for publication 25 September 2009
Published 9 October 2009
Online at /ERL/4/044002
Abstract
This modeling study explores—spatially explicitly, for current and projected future climate, and
for different management intensity levels—the potential for increasing global crop production
through on-farm water management strategies: (a) reducing soil evaporation (‘vapor shift’) and
(b) collecting runoff on cropland and using it during dry spells (‘runoff harvesting’). A
moderate scenario, implying both a 25% reduction in evaporation and a 25% collection of
runoff, suggests that global crop production can be increased by 19%, which is comparable with
the effect of current irrigation (17%). Climate change alone (three climate models, SRES A2r
emissions and population, constant
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