Application of Bayesian Methods to Exposure Assessment of Area Concentrations at a Rubber Factory.pdf

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2009, 6, 622-634; doi:10.3390/ijerph6020622 International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ISSN 1660-4601 /journal/ijerph Article Application of Bayesian Methods to Exposure Assessment of Area Concentrations at a Rubber Factory Yonghua He, Youxin Liang and Hua Fu * School of Public Health, Fudan University /Box 288, No 130, Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, PR China E-Mails: hyhup@ (Y. H.); yxliang@ (Y. L.) * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: hfu@; Tel.: +86-21- Fax: +86-21 Received: 10 December 2008 / Accepted: 5 February 2009 / Published: 11 February 2009 Abstract: The present study estimated area concentrations of airborne benzene in several workshops using Bayesian methods based on available historical measurements. A rubber products factory utilizing benzene was investigated. Historical measurements of benzene concentrations, expert experiences, and deterministic modeling were utilized in a Bayesian Method to estimate area concentrations. Historical concentrations (n=124) were available with the geometric mean of 15.3 mg/m 3 . The geometric mean of the current field measurements on the workstations ranged from 0.7 to 89.0 mg/m 3 . One of the seven historical geometric means by work locations significantly differed from the field measurements for equivalent locations, but none of the geometric means of Bayesian estimates were significantly different from the field measurement results. The Bayesian methods based on the historical measurements appeared to be a useful tool for more closely estimating area concentrations shown by field data than that predicted only using historical measurements. Keywords: Exposure assessment; Bayesian methods; area concentration. OPEN ACCESS Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2009, 6 623 1. Introduction Exposure assessment (EA) is often necessary for epidemiologic research