全球气候变化对中国农业的影响.pdfVIP

中国农学通报 第 24卷 第 12期 2008年 12月 农业资源与环境科学 According to the report of IPCC, the medial temper- ature of the global earth’s surface increased 0.6℃ or so, and the atmosphere temperature of 8 km above the earth’ s surface stepped up in the last several decades, and the areas of the snow and the glacier diminished, and the av- erage sea-level of the globe heightened and thermal ca- pacity of the ocean increased since the year of 1750, and it has been predicted that the global temperature would increase 1.14~5.18 ℃ in the prospective 100 years [1] . Al- though the suppose has not been confirmed, the striking climatic change of the globe has been consented by the majority scholars. And even if the period of temperature which China is occupying doesn’t reach the most warm period——the temperature of the period of the Sui and Tang Dynasty [2] , it is the period whose temperature change is more severe historically. Along with the change of the global environment and climate, agricultural pro- duction suffered tremendous effects. For this reason, it is important that the influence on the agriculture with rela- tion to the problems of the Chinese food security should been analyzed which the global climate changes have. 1 The characteristics of China ’ s climatic change 1.1 Temperature change Chinese academic circles already have penetrating study on the overall characteristics of the temperature change which China happened in the last 50-100 years [3~8] . And recent finding shows: in the last 50 years, except the topical area of southwest and Southern China, the majority areas of China showed the tendency of tem- perature raising, and the amplitude of increasing tempera- ture approximately showed the distribution of latitudinal direction, which it gradually increased progressively from south to north; and the temperature of winter is the most conspicuous one in the seasons whose temperature is as- cending, but the coefficient tendency of the seasons has comparatively large desperat