高速公路平面线形与安全关系的探讨.pdfVIP

第 24 卷 第 1期 2007 年 1 月 公 路 交 通 科 技 Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development Vol 24 No 1 Jan 2007 文章编号: 1002 0268 ( 2007) 01 0126 04 收稿日期: 2005 07 15 作者简介: 李长城 ( 1978- ) , 男, 河北三河人, 工学硕士, 研究方向为交通安全 ( cc li@ rioh cn) 高速公路平面线形与安全关系的探讨 李长城1, 阚伟生2 ( 1 交通部公路科学研究院, 北京 100088; 2 中国农业大学, 北京 100083) 摘要: 建立线形指标、交通量与事故间的模型是当前事故规律微观研究的主要方法, 虽然在模型中纳入更多的指标能 够提高的解释能力, 但增加了模型的复杂性, 加剧了数据采集困难, 简洁的模型有时候在分析特定类型事故时反而更 具优势, 因此 , 作者在研究高速公路线形条件与事故的关系时, 主要提取了平面线形的圆曲线、缓和曲线和超高等指 标, 重点分析平面线形与安全的关系。作者首先对国内外有关平面线形与安全关系的研究进行了简要回顾, 利用贵州 省贵黄、贵新两条高速公路的事故、线形、交通量数据建立了回归模型。此外, 还结合具体案例, 对曲线超高对行车 安全的影响进行了剖析, 并提出了一些针对平面线形安全问题的具体措施和建议。 关键词: 高速公路; 平曲线; 安全; 事故; 模型 中图分类号: U412 3 文献标识码: A Discussion on Relationship between Expressway Crash and Horizontal Alignment LI Chang cheng 1 , KAN Wei sheng 2 ( 1 Research Institute of Highway the M inistry of Communications, Beijing 100088, China; 2 Agriculture University of China, Beijing 100083, China) Abstract: Constructing function model between crash and road geometric traffic variables using statistical tool is one of the most important method in crash analysis and prediction More variables included in model may improve goodness of fit, but this will make model more complex and make data collection more difficult Thus, the authors focused on the relationship between horizontal alignment variables and crash in this paper, and typical horizontal alignment variables include circular curve, curve length, spiral curve, superelevation, etc First, the authors made a literature review, introduced relevant research results comprehensively Second, two regression models were developed by using SPSS tool, with crash, geometric and traffic data of GuiHuang and GuiXin expressway in Guizhou province Additionally, the effect of superelevation on road safety was analyzed based on practical case, with some suggestions and countermeasures on safety improvement of horizontal alignment Key words: expressway; horizontal curve; safety; crash; model 0 前言 近些年我国的公路建设取得了