2013年前三季度国际畜产品市场分析及展望.doc

2013年前3季度国际畜产品市场分析及展望 摘 要：2013年前3季度国际畜产品市场不同肉类产品差别较大，禽肉、猪肉和牛肉产品价格小幅上涨，羊肉价格下降。不同国家畜产品价格走势也不同，美国猪肉、禽肉和羊肉价格先涨后跌，牛肉价格先跌后涨；欧盟猪肉价格先跌后涨，禽肉价格总体处于涨势，牛羊肉价格先涨后跌；日本牛肉和猪肉价格总体上涨，巴西活牛和鸡肉价格先跌后涨。受主要肉类消费市场猪肉产量增加影响，主要猪肉出口市场出口量下降。受产量预增影响，预计玉米价格将维持弱势，饲料成本下降，2013年第4季度猪肉和禽肉价格缺乏上涨支撑。 关键词：畜产品；价格；贸易；生产 International Livestock Market Situation in the First 3 Quarters of 2013 and Its Future Prospect Zhu Zengyong1, Bi Yinghui2 (1Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081; 2National Animal Husbandry Service, Beijing 100125) Abstract: In the first 3 quarters of 2013, prices of different meat products in international livestock market showed greater differences, and prices of broiler, pork and beef products rose slightly, while mutton price decreased. Different countries showed different prices trend. The pork, poultry and lamb prices in America fell after rose, while the beef prices showed opposite trend. The pork prices in EU was firstly fall and then rose, while the poultry prices was in overall rising trend, and the beef and mutton prices showed opposite trend to pork price. The beef and pork prices in Japan showed increasing trend. Brazils cattle and chicken ended higher after initially prices falling. For pork production increase in main meat consumption market, the export in main pork export markets was decreased. For output increase of maize, its price will maintain weak trend and production cost will fall. In the fourth quarter, the prices of pork and poultry meat will be short of the rise support. Key words: livestock; price; trade; production 1 美国 1.1 畜产品价格 美国猪肉价格先升后降[1]。自2013年3月以来，猪肉价格总体保持涨势，6月上涨至2.03美元/kg后连续3个月回落，9月猪肉切块价格环比跌4.4%，为1.91美元/kg，同比上涨24.2%（图1）。 鸡肉价格先涨后跌，第3季度弱势下跌。12个城市鸡肉平均价5月上涨至2.43美元/kg后开始连续4个月下跌???9月价格为2.01美元/kg，环比跌0.02%，同比涨10.2%（图1）；佐治亚州码头鸡肉平均价连续24月保持涨势后连续2月小幅下跌，9月价格为2.30美元/kg，环比跌0.4%，同比上涨9.8%（图1）。 羔羊肉批发价格连续4个月小幅回落。精选24.95～29.48kg羊羔肉批发价格至5月达到5.65美元/kg后开始连续4个月小幅下跌，9月价格小幅下跌1.1%，同比降10.3%，为5.20美元/kg（图1）。 图1 2010年以来美国主要畜产品批