《高级宏观学教学资料》ch 5.pptVIP

Ch 5 RBC THEORY;经济周期的阶段;;经济周期的特征事实 (US): 1.经济波动并未遵循单一的有规则的或周期性的形式(周期长度不规则) 表5.1和图5.1 Modern macroeconomics has turned away from attempts to interpret fluctuations as combinations of deterministic cycles of different lengths, e.g., Kitchin(3 years), Juglar(10 years),Kuznets(20 years), and Kondratiev(50 years). ;2 产出的各个组成部分的波动不均匀(T5.2） inventories vs. durable consumption 3.产出上升与下降不对称，常常是“牛长熊短” 4. 不同时期经济波动的时间长度和幅度不同 5.衰退阶段一些重要的宏观经济变量的特征（T5.3）Okun’s law: 产出波动与就业波动的相关性 2 % shortfall in GDP relates to 1 % rise in the unemployment rate.; 经济周期理论的主要分歧;The two basic questions: (1