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Chapter 13 ;Policy analysis with pooled cross sections
Two or more independently sampled cross sections can be used to evaluate the impact of a certain event or policy change
Example: Effect of new garbage incinerator on housing prices
Examine the effect of the location of a house on its price before and after the garbage incinerator was built:
;Example: Garbage incinerator and housing prices (cont.)
It would be wrong to conclude from the regression after the incinerator is there that being near the incinerator depresses prices so strongly
One has to compare with the situation before the incinerator was built:
In the given case, this is equivalent to
This is the so called difference-in-differences estimator (DiD)
;Difference-in-differences in a regression framework
In this way standard errors for the DiD-effect can be obtained
If houses sold before and after the incinerator was built were sys-tematically different, further explanatory variables should be included
This will also reduce the error variance and thus standard errors
Before/After comparisons in ?natural experiments“
DiD can be used to evaluate policy changes or other exogenous events;Policy evaluation using difference-in-differences
;Two-period panel data analysis
Example: Effect of unemployment on city crime rate
Assume that no other explanatory variables are available. Will it be possible to estimate the causal effect of unemployment on crime?
Yes, if cities are observed for at least two periods and other factors affecting crime stay approximately constant over those periods:
;Example: Effect of unemployment on city crime rate (cont.)
Estimate differenced equation by OLS:
;Discussion of first-differenced panel estimator
Further explanatory variables may be included in original equation
Note that there may be arbitrary correlation between the unobserved time-invariant characteristics and the included explanatory variables
OLS in the original equation would therefore be inconsistent
The first-differenced
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