Rolling forecast the future market start-ups.docVIP

 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 5 ‘Rolling forecast’ the future market start-ups In today’s volatile market situation, how to conduct business market forecasts, especially in new enterprises, market forecast, has been plagued people’s a problem. Compared with the old enterprise, due to the existence of new enterprises, the production conditions are not stable, the lack of market factors such as historical data to predict some of the difficulty is even greater. I draw on a rolling plan (mainly for the preparation of long-term planning) thinking, combined with its own management information systems development work practice, worked out an effective, convenient scrolling and easy prediction method. 1, the basic model of Now more commonly used market forecast model is based on historical data of the past a large number of processing foundation. Such as the regression forecast method, the need for a lot of observing and analyzing historical data to study the variation of its development in order to finally arrive at a more reasonable prediction models. In this way, the lack of historical data on new enterprises, to be operational. The moving average method is required for the amount of data is not particularly large, you can just need some recent data, seems to be a more appropriate prediction method for new businesses. However, its shortcomings are obvious: First, consider only the historical data, that is entirely based on historical data of past speculation. Second, it can only make predictions very short-term forecasts. We know that the market forecasts and sales plans can be used as an important reference index, and any programs require relatively long-term nature and continuity, it is clear moving average method generated by this task. Rolling forecasting method came into being. Its advantages are as follows: First, it fully capitalize on the future state value to predict the future state of the so-called value is the value of the contract for future months. In view