第5讲--经济预测创新与出口管理.pptVIP

第五讲 经济预测与出口管理;主要内容;经济分析与决策 需求分析 生产和成本分析 产品、定价和产出量决策 资本支出分析;案例4-1—Global Crossing公司过剩的光纤传输能力 美国光纤网络传输高速数据和声音信号的能力大大超出了电信需求，现有产能的97%闲置。 纽约和洛杉矶之间输送1兆B价格1995每年12000美元——2001下降到3000美元——2003年下降到1200美元。 信号压缩技术导致产能超过市场增长。100天翻一番。 对电信传输量增长过度乐观。2003年1000%——40%。 互联网的渗透呈现S形。;Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile 5.2.0.0. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd.;一、预测的意义与预测技术选择;一、预测的意义与预测技术选择;一、预测的意义与预测技术选择;一、预测的意义与预测技术选择;二、时间系列分析;TIME;二、时间系列分析;Naive Forecast Yt+1 = Yt Method best when there is no trend, only random error Graphs of sales over time with and without trends When trending down, the Na?ve predicts too high;2. Na?ve forecast with adjustments for secular trends;Used when trend has a constant AMOUNT of change Yt = a + b?T, where Yt are the actual observations and T is a numerical time variable 案例4-2——冰淇淋;Suppose: Yt = Y0( 1 + G) t where g is the annual growth rate Take the natural log of both sides: Ln Yt = Ln Y0 + t ? Ln (1 + G) but Ln ( 1 + G ) ? g, the equivalent continuously compounded growth rate SO: Ln Yt = Ln Y0 + t ? g Ln Yt = a + b ? t where b is the growth rate;Numerical Examples: 6 observations;The regression equation is Sales = 85.0 + 12.7 Time Predictor Coef Stdev t-ratio p Constant 84.987 2.417 35.16 0.000 Time 12.6514 0.6207 20.38 0.000 s = 2.596 R-sq = 99.0% R-sq(adj) = 98.8% ;Forecasted Sales @ Time = 7;Sales Time Ln-sales 100.0 1 4.60517 109.8 2 4.69866 121.6 3 4.80074 133.7 4 4.89560 146.2 5 4.98498 164.3 6 5.10169 179.0 7 semi-log 173.9 7 linear;⑶ Declining Rate of Growth Trend;4. Seasonal Adjustments: The Ratio to Trend Method;Let D = 1, if 4th quarter and 0 otherwise Run a new regression: Yt = a + b?T + c?D the “c” coefficient gives the amount of the adjustment for the fourth quarter. It is an Intercept Shifter. With 4 quarters, there can be as many as three dummy variables;