Epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis case-fatality rate of Markov Prediction Model.docVIP

 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 3 Epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis case-fatality rate of Markov Prediction Model [Abstract] Daqing City, from 1980 to 1999, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis case-fatality rate data, using Markov chain to predict the estimated case fatality rate for future years the state, in order to provide the scientific basis for health and disease prevention. Keywords:: epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis; mortality; Markov chain [1] the number of columns of gray model GM (1,1) in Daqing City, from 1980 to 2000 epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis morbidity and mortality were prediction. The results show that GM (1,1) model can better reflect the incidence of ECM in Daqing City, but it does not reflect well in Daqing City, 21 years, the law of the case fatality rate of ECM. [2] through the ceiling of a given case fatality disaster value of the date of the catastrophic sequence of the establishment of GM (1,1) model, has been catastrophic meningitis case-fatality rate of gray prediction model. In order to better tap the prevalence of the disease characteristics, the present study, the estimated Markov chain to predict the incidence of future years, the state, in order to provide the scientific basis for health and disease prevention. 1 Data Method 1  1 Data from 1980 to 1999 in Daqing City, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis case-fatality rate data [1]. Table 1 Daqing City from 1980 to 1999 epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis case-fatality rate (omitted) 1  2 method [3] When using Markov chain to describe the prediction object, state transition probability matrix to predict the key. One of the most intuitive to strike a state transition probability matrix method of solution is based on survey data, the original survey data based on data X = (x (1), x (2), ..., x (N)), the specific method of calculation summarized as follows: 1  2  1 for status classification of the actual situation of the projected object will be divided into m states, respecti