贝恩-投资评估方法.ppt

Investment Appraisal; ;After completion of this module, the trainee will be able to value and compare alternative investment options. The trainee will achieve this by estimating future cash flows, the cost of capital and the terminal value and assessing the results through the use of NPV, IRR and cash payback period; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;The most common method of determining the opportunity cost of capital, or discount rate is the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) . We will examine the formula for WACC in more detail later, but for now we will introduce the concept.;We will discuss the following elements required to calculate WACC: CAPM - capital asset pricing model Beta as measure of undiversifiable business risk risk-free rate and market risk premium cost of debt and cost of equity More detail can be found in BRAVA or any financial textbook (such as Brealey and Myers); ;Hypothetical return on a security with no default risk. Since no such security exists, government securities are used as proxy (for governments with almost no risk of default) T-Bill rate sometimes used, but since it is short-term, it does not match the duration of cash flows associated with equity investments Therefore, use 10-year Treasury bonds, or 30-year Treasury bonds with liquidity premium adjustment (approximately 1.7%) Rf = (10 year T-Bond) or (30 year T-Bond - 1.7%). These rates can be found in newspapers, such as the Wall Street Journal, as the yields generated by bonds maturing in 10 or 30 years; ;If estimating b for a publicly traded company use published estimates. For companies on the New York Stock Exchange, American Stock Exchange or NASDAQ, BARRA publishes predicted betas quarterly. For UK firms, the London Business School is a potential source. If using several sources, use the highest-quality services and take an average of the betas The more leveraged a firm is (i.e., the more debt it has) the riskier its cash flows become, since it has to make larger inte