基于条件价值法的公交车内拥挤成本测算模型.pdfVIP

第 46 卷第 1 期 吉林大学学报(工学版) Vol. 46 NO.1 2016 年 1 月 Journal of Jilin University (Engineering and Technology Edition) Jan. 2016 基于条件价值法的公交车内拥挤成本测算模型 王殿海，叶 盈，未文韬，祁宏生 (浙江大学建筑工程学院，杭州 310058) 摘 要 2 公交车内拥挤成本是公交出行成本的重要组成部分，针对其非市场商品特性，引入条 件价值法，以效用最大化为目标建立公交出行选择效用函数，井利用支付意愿法推导出以时间 价值为自变量的拥挤成本测算模型。在此基础上，分析时间价值与车内拥挤程度的内在关系， 指出现有时间价值 F 拥挤程度模型存在的问题并对其进行改进。最后根据杭州市拥挤度支付 意愿问卷调查数据建立二元 Probit 模型标定相关参数，量化公交出行拥挤成本。结果表明: 公交车内拥挤成本随着拥挤程度的增加而非线性增加，当乘载率大于 2.0 时，拥挤成本占公交 出行成本的 1/3 0 关键词:道路工程;条件价值法;拥挤成本;时间价值;乘载率 中图分类号 : U491. 1 文献标志码 :A 文章编号 :1671-5497(2016)01-0057-06 DOI: 10. 13229/j. cnki. jdxbgxb201601009 Estimation of crowding costs in bus based on contingent valuation method WANG Dian-hai , YE Ying , ZHU Wen-tao , QI Hong-sheng (College 0/ Civil Engineering and Aγchitectu 时 ， Zhejiang University , Hangzhou 310058 , China) Abstract:Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) , one of the most widely used methods to estimate non-market goods , was introduced to quantify the crowding costs in bus , which is an important part of the total costs of bus trip. With the goal of utility maximization, the relationship between the crowding costs and Value of Time (VOT) was deduced from the concept of willingness to pay. To further 巳 stablish the model of the crowding costs and load factors , the relationship between VOT and load factors was analyzed and improved based on the existing models. Meanwhile , in accordance with the questionnaire data in Hangzhou city, the relevant parameters were obtained using the binary Probit model. Then, the crowding costs were quantified under different crowding conditions. The results show that the