“挤入”还是“挤出”中国农村的公共转移支付与私人转移支付.pdfVIP

人口与发展 2013 年第19 卷第4 期 POPULATION DEVELOPMENT Vol. 19 No.4 2013 挤入还是挤出?中国农村的公共转移支付 与私人转移支付* 解圭 (山东大学经济学院，山东济南 2501∞) 摘要:基于微观调查数据，分析了公共转移支付和私人转移支付之间的联系，检验中国农村公共转移支 付对私人转移支付的非线性挤出效应。采用两阶段 heckman 方法，第一阶段因变量为收到私人转移支 付的可能性，第二阶段的因变量为收到私人转移支付的数量。私人转移支付发出方的动机是交换动机， 公共转移支付只是增加了私人转移支付的可能性，但公共转移支付并没有影响私人转移支付数量;私人 转移支付动机并不是非线性的;把公共转移支付分为生产性和生活性后，两类公共转移支付对净私人转 移支付数量也没有影响。 关键词:公共转移支付:私人转移支付:挤入;挤出 中固分类号:ω15 文献标识码:A 文章编号: 1674 -1668 (2013)04 -∞28 -09 Crowding out or Crowding in? Public and Private Transfers in Rural China XIE E (School 01 Economics ,Shandong University ,Jinan 25∞1O， China) Abstract: Using pilot data from the newly released China Health and Retirement 1ρngitudinal Study( CHARlS) ，四is paper estimates interaction between public transfers and private trans- fers. non - monotonic crowding out effect is test by two - stage Heckman s selection model. In two - stage model , the receipt of private transfer is the first stage , and amount of private transfer received second stage dependent variable. Themail results is that the predominant mo- tive for sending private transfer to parents is exchange . The receipt of public transfers increase likelihood of receipt of private transfers. The receipt of public transfers does not affect amount of private received. There is not non - monotonic transfer motives in private transfers. Product- ibility and survivability of public transfers does not affect the net of amount of private re- ceived ,too. Key words: