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Considering rating curve uncertainty in water level predictions.doc

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Considering rating curve uncertainty in water level predictions

Hydrol.EarthSyst.Sci.Discuss.,10,2955–2986,2013 /10/2955/2013/ doi:10.5194/hessd-10-2955-2013 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences HESSD ?Author(s)2013.CCAttribution3.0License. 10,2955–2986,2013 Discussions Thisdiscussionpaperis/hasbeenunderreviewforthejournalHydrologyandEarthSystem Sciences(HESS).Pleaserefertothecorresponding?nalpaperinHESSifavailable. Consideringrating curveuncertaintyin waterlevel predictions Consideringratingcurveuncertaintyin waterlevelpredictions A.E.Sikorskaetal. TitlePage A.E.Sikorska ,A.Scheidegger ,K.Banasik ,andJ.Rieckermann1 1,2 1 2 Abstract Conclusions Tables Introduction References Figures 1SwissFederalInstituteofAquaticScienceandTechnology(Eawag), Dept.ofUrbanWaterManagement,Du¨bendorf,Switzerland 2WarsawUniversityofLifeSciences–SGGW,Dept.ofHydraulicEngineering, Warsaw,Poland J J I I Received:12February2013–Accepted:17February2013–Published:7March2013 Correspondenceto:A.E.Sikorska(anna.sikorska@eawag.ch) Back Close PublishedbyCopernicusPublicationsonbehalfoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion. FullScreen/Esc Printer-friendlyVersion InteractiveDiscussion 2955 Abstract HESSD Stream?ow cannot be measured directly and is typically derived with a rating curve model.Unfortunately,thiscausesuncertaintiesinthestream?owdataandalsoin?u- encesthecalibrationofrainfall-runo?modelsiftheyareconditionedonsuchdata.How- ever, it is currently unknown to what extent these uncertainties propagate to rainfall- runo?predictions.Thisstudythereforepresentsaquantitativeapproachtorigorously considertheimpactoftheratingcurveonthepredictionuncertaintyofwaterlevels.The uncertaintyanalysisisperformedwithinaformalBayesianframeworkandthecontri- butions of rating curve versus rainfall-runo? model parameters to the total predictive 10 uncertaintyareaddressed.Amajorbene?toftheapproachisitsindependencefrom theappliedrainfall-runo?modelandratingcurve.Inaddition,itonlyrequiresalready existinghydrometricdata.Theapproachwassuccessfullytestedonasmallurbanized basininPoland,w