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Dynamic downscaling of the NCEP EPS forecast using the PROMES limited area model.doc

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Dynamic downscaling of the NCEP EPS forecast using the PROMES limited area model

Tethys2012,9 ,3–12 www.tethys.cat ISSN-1697-1523 eISSN-1139-3394 DOI:10.3369/tethys.2012.9.01 JournaleditedbyACAM DynamicdownscalingoftheNCEPEPSforecastusingthe PROMESlimitedareamodel E.Hagel,V.E.Gil,C.TejedaandM.deCastro InstitutoMeteorol′ogicoRegionaldeCastilla-LaMancha(iMetCam),Avda.CarlosIII,s/n,45071,Toledo Received:7-IV-2011–Accepted:19-X-2011–Originalversion Correspondenceto:edit.hagel@uclm.es Abstract Whenmakingnumericalweatherpredictions,itisimportanttoforecastnotonlythefuturestate oftheatmosphere,butalsotopredicttheuncertaintyrelatedtothisforecast. Keepingthisin mind,researchhasstartedatiMetCaminordertodevelopalimitedareaensembleprediction system. Asastart, thesimpledynamicaldownscalingapproachwastried. Initialconditions andlateralboundaryconditionswereprovidedbytheglobalensemblesystemofNCEPandthe PROMESlimitedareamodelwasusedforthedownscaling. Inthispaperthe?rstresultsand thefutureplansofthisexperimentarepresented. Resultsshowthatbothsystems(globaland limitedarea)arelackingspread,atleastfortheveri?cationareainquestion,whichindicates thatadditionalperturbationsaredesirable,whichwillbethedirectionofourfuturework. Keywords:ensemblepredictionsystem,probabilisticforecast,limitedareamodel,dynamicaldownscaling,veri?cation 1 Introduction Since its ?rst operational application in 1992 (Buizza etal.,1993; TothandKalnay,1997),ensembleforecasting has become a widely used technique by many meteoro- logical services around the world (e.g. Australia: Bourke etal.,2004;Canada: Charronetal.,2010;France: Nicolau, 2002; United Kingdom: Bowler et al., 2008; USA: Wei et al., 2008; European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): Buizza et al., 2007). Despite its obvious bene?ts, it was used only on global scales for a long time. In the last decade, however, intensive research has started to apply the ensemble method in limited area forecastingaswell(seee.g. Moltenietal., 2001; Marsigli et al., 2008; Gebhardt et al., 2008; Bowler et al., 20