ANOSPEX A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Model for Studying Anopheles Metapopulation Dynamics.docVIP

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ANOSPEX A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Model for Studying Anopheles Metapopulation Dynamics.doc

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ANOSPEX A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Model for Studying Anopheles Metapopulation Dynamics

ANOSPEX:AStochastic,SpatiallyExplicitModelfor StudyingAnophelesMetapopulationDynamics OlugbengaO.Oluwagbemi2,3,ChristenM.Fornadel2,EzekielF.Adebiyi3,DouglasE.Norris2, JasonL.Rasgon1* 1The Department of Entomology, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Huck Institutes of the Life Sciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania,UnitedStatesofAmerica,2W.HarryFeinstoneDepartmentofMolecularMicrobiologyandImmunologyandtheJohnsHopkinsMalariaResearchInstitute, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America, 3Department of Computer and Information Sciences, College of ScienceandTechnology,SchoolofNaturalandAppliedSciences,CovenantUniversity,Ota,OgunState,Nigeria Abstract Anopheles mosquitoes transmit malaria, a major public health problem amongmany African countries. One of the most effective methods to control malaria is by controlling the Anopheles mosquito vectors that transmit the parasites. Mathematical models have both predictive and explorative utility to investigate the pros and cons of different malaria control strategies. We have developed a C++ based, stochastic spatially explicit model (ANOSPEX; Anopheles Spatially- Explicit)tosimulateAnophelesmetapopulationdynamics.Themodelisbiologicallyrich,parameterizedbyfielddata,and driven by field-collected weather data from Macha, Zambia. To preliminarily validate ANOSPEX, simulation results were compared to field mosquito collection data from Macha; simulated and observed dynamics were similar. The ANOSPEX model will be useful in a predictive and exploratory manner to develop, evaluate and implement traditional and novel strategiestocontrolmalaria,andforunderstandingtheenvironmentalforcesdrivingAnophelespopulationdynamics. Citation: Oluwagbemi OO, Fornadel CM, Adebiyi EF, Norris DE, Rasgon JL (2013) ANOSPEX: A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Model for Studying Anopheles MetapopulationDynamics.PLoSONE8(7):e68040.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0068040 E