Anticipating the Prevalence of Avian Influenza Subtypes H9 and H5 in Live-Bird Markets.docVIP

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Anticipating the Prevalence of Avian Influenza Subtypes H9 and H5 in Live-Bird Markets.doc

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Anticipating the Prevalence of Avian Influenza Subtypes H9 and H5 in Live-Bird Markets

AnticipatingthePrevalenceofAvianInfluenzaSubtypes H9andH5inLive-BirdMarkets KimM.Pepin1,2,JiaWang3,4,ColleenT.Webb2,JenniferA.Hoeting5,MaryPoss6,PeterJ.Hudson6, WenshanHong3,HuachenZhu3,4,YiGuan3,4*,StevenRiley4,7 * 1Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America, 2Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins,Colorado,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3InternationalInstitutionofInfectionandImmunity,ShantouUniversityMedicalCollege,Shantou,People’sRepublicofChina, 4StateKeyLaboratoryofEmergingInfectiousDiseases,TheUniversityofHongKong,HongKongSAR,People’sRepublicofChina,5DepartmentofStatistics,Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America, 6Department of Biology, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, UniversityPark, Pennsylvania, United StatesofAmerica,7Department ofInfectiousDisease Epidemiology, School ofPublicHealth, ImperialCollegeLondon, London, UnitedKingdom Abstract Anabilitytoforecasttheprevalenceofspecificsubtypesofavianinfluenzaviruses(AIV)inlive-birdmarketswouldfacilitate greatly the implementation of preventative measures designed to minimize poultry losses and human exposure. The minimum requirement for developing predictive quantitative tools is surveillance data of AIV prevalence sampled frequentlyoverseveralyears.Recently,a4-yeartimeseriesofmonthlysamplingofhemagglutininsubtypes1–13inducks, chickensandquailinlive-birdmarketsinsouthernChinahasbecomeavailable.Weusedthesedatatoinvestigatewhether asimplestatisticalmodel,basedsolelyonhistoricaldata(variablessuchasthenumberofpositivesamplesinhost Xof subtypeYtimetmonthsago),couldaccuratelypredictprevalenceofH5andH9subtypesinchickens.Wealsoexamined the role of ducks and quail in predicting prevalence in chickens within the market setting because between-species transmission is thought to occur within markets but has not been measured. Our best statistical models perfor