Apparent Survival Rates of Forest Birds in Eastern Ecuador Revisited Improvement in Precision but No Change in Estimates.docVIP

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Apparent Survival Rates of Forest Birds in Eastern Ecuador Revisited Improvement in Precision but No Change in Estimates.doc

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Apparent Survival Rates of Forest Birds in Eastern Ecuador Revisited Improvement in Precision but No Change in Estimates

ApparentSurvivalRatesofForestBirdsinEastern EcuadorRevisited:ImprovementinPrecisionbutNo ChangeinEstimates JohnG.Blake1*,BetteA.Loiselle1,2 1DepartmentofWildlifeEcologyandConservation,UniversityofFlorida,Gainesville,Florida,UnitedStatesofAmerica,2CenterforLatinAmericanStudies,Universityof Florida,Gainesville,Florida,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Knowledge of survival rates of Neotropical landbirds remains limited, with estimates of apparent survival available from relativelyfewsitesandspecies.Previously,capture-mark-recapturemodelswereusedtoestimateapparentsurvivalof31 species(30passerines,1Trochilidae)fromeasternEcuadorbasedondatacollectedfrom2001to2006.Here,estimatesare updatedwithdatafrom2001-2012todeterminehowadditionalyearsofdataaffectestimates;estimatesforsixadditional speciesareprovided.Modelsassumingconstantsurvivalhadhighestsupportfor19of31specieswhenbasedon12years ofdatacomparedto27whenbasedonsix;modelsincorporatingeffectsoftransientshadthehighestsupportfor12of31 species compared to four when based on 12 and six years, respectively. Average apparent survival based on the most highly-supportedmodel(basedonmodelaveraging,whenappropriate)was0.59(60.02SE)across30speciesofpasserines whenbasedon12yearsand0.57(60.02)whenbasedonsix.Standarderrorsofsurvivalestimatesbasedon12yearswere approximatelyhalfthosebasedonsixyears.Of31speciesinbothdatasets,estimatesofapparentsurvivalweresomewhat lowerfor13,somewhathigherfor17,andremainedunchangedforone;confidenceintervalsforestimatesbasedonsixand 12yearsofdataoverlappedforallspecies.Resultsindicatethatestimatesofapparentsurvivalarecomparablebutmore precisewhenbasedonlonger-termdatasets;standarderroroftheestimateswasnegativelycorrelatedwithnumbersof captures (rs=20.72) and recaptures (rs=20.93, P,0.001 in both cases). Thus, reasonable estimates of apparent survival maybeobtainedwithrelativelyfewyearsofdataifsamplesizesaresufficient. Citation: Blake JG, Loiselle BA (2013) Apparent Survival Rates of Forest Birds in Eastern E