China’ New Energy Passenger Vehicle Development Scenario Analysis Based on Le Time Cost Modelling.docVIP

Low Carbon Economy, 2013, 4, 71-79 71 /10.4236/lce.2013.42008 Published Online June 2013 (/journal/lce) China’ New Energy Passenger Vehicle Development Scenario Analysis Based on Life Time Cost Modelling Xunmin Ou , Qian Zhang , Xu Zhang , Xiliang Zhang 1,2* 1,2 1,2 1,2 1 Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. 2 China Automotive Energy Research Center, Email: ouxm@ * Received March 8 , 2013; revised April 8 , 2013; accepted May 8 , 2013 th th th Copyright ? 2013 Xunmin Ou et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ABSTRACT Based on the analysis on the development trend of vehicle technology, vehicle price, vehicle fuel economy and fuel supply price, the new energy vehicle (NEV) passenger car development scale is projected on different scenario with the application of life time cost model. Three scenarios are set to find electric vehicle (EV) and fuel cell vehicle (FCV) de- velopment potential in future to their pessimistic and optimistic assumptions in China. The results are demonstrated: 1) NEV development needs a long time due to high initial cost for vehicle buyer; 2) EV will develop quickly under if there is quick development of battery technology; and 3) FCV can only develop in a large scale in 20 - 30 years even in the optimistic scenario. Keywords: Life Time Cost; New Energy Vehicle; Scenario Analysis; China 1. Introduction from the perspective of their lifetime; and 3) some useful options to improve the situation of high cost for NEVs and promote t