Dynamic Epidemiological Models for Dengue Transmission A Systematic Review of Structural Approaches 英文参考文献.docVIP

DynamicEpidemiologicalModelsforDengue Transmission:ASystematicReviewofStructural Approaches MathieuAndraud1*,NielHens1,2,ChristiaanMarais1,PhilippeBeutels1,3 1CentreforHealthEconomicsResearchandModellingofInfectiousDiseases(CHERMID),VaccineInfectiousDiseaseInstitute(VAXINFECTIO),UniversityofAntwerp, Antwerpen, Belgium, 2Interuniversity Institute of Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Diepenbeek, Belgium, 3School of Public Health and CommunityMedicine,UniversityofNewSouthWales,Sydney,NSW,Australia Abstract Dengueisavector-bornediseaserecognizedasthemajorarbovirosewithfourimmunologicallydistantdengueserotypes coexisting in many endemic areas. Several mathematical models have been developed to understand the transmission dynamicsofdengue,includingtheroleofcross-reactiveantibodiesforthefourdifferentdengueserotypes.Weaimedto reviewdeterministicmodelsofdenguetransmission,inordertosummarizetheevolutionofinsightsfor,andprovidedby, suchmodels,andtoidentifyimportantcharacteristicsforfuturemodeldevelopment.Weidentifiedrelevantpublications usingPubMedandISIWebofKnowledge,focusingonmathematicaldeterministicmodelsofdenguetransmission.Model assumptions were systematically extracted from each reviewed model structure, and were linked with their underlying epidemiological concepts. After defining common terms in vector-borne disease modelling, we generally categorised fourty-two published models of interest into single serotype and multiserotype models. The multi-serotype models assumed either vector-host or direct host-to-host transmission (ignoring the vector component). For each approach, we discussed the underlying structural and parameter assumptions, threshold behaviour and the projected impact of interventions.Inviewoftheexpectedavailabilityofdenguevaccines,modellingapproacheswillincreasinglyfocusonthe effectivenessandcost-effectivenessofvaccinationoptions.Forthispurpose,thelevelofrepresentationofthevectorand host populations seems pivotal. Sin