Dynamic Modeling of Vaccinating Behavior as a Function of Individual Beliefs 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Dynamic Modeling of Vaccinating Behavior as a Function of Individual Beliefs 英文参考文献.doc

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Dynamic Modeling of Vaccinating Behavior as a Function of Individual Beliefs 英文参考文献

DynamicModelingofVaccinatingBehaviorasaFunction ofIndividualBeliefs Fla′vioCodec?oCoelho1*,ClaudiaT.Codec?o2 1TheoreticalEpidemiologyGroup,InstitutoGulbenkiandeCie?ncia,Oeiras,Portugal,2ScientificComputingProgram,OswaldoCruzFoundation,RiodeJaneiro,Riode Janeiro,Brazil Abstract Individualperceptionofvaccinesafetyisanimportantfactorindeterminingaperson’sadherencetoavaccinationprogram and its consequences for disease control. This perception, or belief, about the safety of a given vaccine is not a static parameterbutavariablesubjecttoenvironmentalinfluence.Tocomplicatematters,perceptionofrisk(orsafety)doesnot correspond to actual risk. In this paper we propose a way to include the dynamics of such beliefs into a realistic epidemiologicalmodel,yieldingamorecompletedepictionofthemechanismsunderlyingtheunravelingofvaccination campaigns.ThemethodologyproposedisbasedonBayesianinferenceandcanbeextendedtomodelmorecomplexbelief systemsassociatedwithdecisionmodels.Wefoundthemethodisabletoproducebehaviorswhichapproximatewhathas beenobservedinrealvaccineanddiseasescaresituations.Theframeworkpresentedcomprisesasetofusefultoolsforan adequatequantitativerepresentationofacommonyetcomplexpublic-healthissue.Thesetoolsincluderepresentationof beliefsasBayesianprobabilities,usageoflogarithmicpoolingtocombineprobabilitydistributionsrepresentingopinions, and usage of natural conjugate priors to efficiently compute the Bayesian posterior. This approach allowed a comprehensivetreatmentoftheuncertaintyregardingvaccinationbehaviorinarealisticepidemiologicalmodel. Citation: Coelho FC, Codec?o CT (2009) Dynamic Modeling of Vaccinating Behavior as a Function of Individual Beliefs. PLoS Comput Biol 5(7): e1000425. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000425 Editor:RustomAntia,EmoryUniversity,UnitedStatesofAmerica ReceivedNovember3,2008;AcceptedJune1,2009;PublishedJuly10,2009 Copyright: ?2009 Coelho, Codec?o. This is an open-access article distributedunder the terms of the CreativeCommons Attribution Licen