Early Outbreak of 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico Prior to Identification of pH1N1 Virus 英文参考文献.docVIP

EarlyOutbreakof2009InfluenzaA(H1N1)inMexico PriortoIdentificationofpH1N1Virus Ying-HenHsieh1,2*,StefanMa3,JorgeX.VelascoHernandez4,5,VernonJ.Lee6,7,WeiYenLim3 1 Department of Public Health, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan,2 Center for Infectious Disease Education and Research, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan, 3 Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, 4 Programa de Matema′ticas Aplicadas y Computacio′n, Instituto Mexicano del Petro′ leo, Me′xico City DF, Mexico,5 Departamento de Biociencias e Ingenier?′a, Interdisciplinary Center for Research and Studies on Environment and Development-National Polytechnic Institute, Me′xico City DF, Mexico,6 Headquarters Medical Corps, Singapore Armed Forces, Singapore, Singapore,7 Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore Abstract Background: In the aftermath of the global spread of 2009 influenza A (pH1N1) virus, still very little is known of the early stages of the outbreak in Mexico during the early months of the year, before the virus was identified. Methodology/MainFindings: We fit a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to the number of excess laboratory- confirmed influenza cases in Mexico and Mexico City during the first 15 weeks in 2009 over the average influenza case number of the previous five baseline years of 2004-2008 during the same period to ascertain the turning point (or the peak incidence) of a wave of early influenza infections, and to estimate the transmissibility of the virus during these early months in terms of its basic reproduction number. The results indicate that there may have been an early epidemic in Mexico City as well as in all of Mexico during February/March. Based on excess influenza cases, the estimated basic rep