Evolutionary Repercussions of Avian Culling on Host Resistance and Influenza Virulence 英文参考文献.docVIP

EvolutionaryRepercussionsofAvianCullingonHost ResistanceandInfluenzaVirulence EunhaShim*,AlisonP.Galvani DepartmentofEpidemiologyandPublicHealth,YaleUniversitySchoolofMedicine,NewHaven,Connecticut,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background:Keepingpandemicinfluenzaatbayisaglobalhealthpriority.Ofparticularconcernisthecontinuedspreadof theinfluenzasubtypeH5N1inavianpopulationsandtheincreasingfrequencyoftransmissiontohumans.Todecreasethis threat,masscullingistheprincipalstrategyforeradicatinginfluenzainavianpopulations.Althoughcullinghasacrucial short-termepidemiologicalbenefit,evolutionaryrepercussionsonreservoirhostsandontheviralpopulationhavenotbeen considered. MethodsandFindings:Toexploretheepidemiologicalandevolutionaryrepercussionsofmassavianculling,wecombine population genetics and epidemiological influenza dynamics in a mathematical model parameterized by clinical, epidemiological,andpoultrydata.Wemodelthevirulencelevelofinfluenzaandtheselectiononadominantallelethat confersresistanceagainstinfluenza[1,2]inapoultrypopulation.Ourfindingsindicatethatcullingimpedestheevolutionof avian host resistance against influenza. On the pathogen side of the coevolutionary race between pathogen and host, cullingselectsforheightenedvirulenceandtransmissibilityofinfluenza. Conclusions: Mass culling achieves a short-term benefit at the expense of long-term detriments: a more genetically susceptiblehostpopulation,ultimatelygreatermortality,andelevatedinfluenzavirulence. Citation:ShimE,GalvaniAP(2009)EvolutionaryRepercussionsofAvianCullingonHostResistanceandInfluenzaVirulence.PLoSONE4(5):e5503.doi:10.1371/ journal.pone.0005503 Editor:StevenRiley,HongKongUniversity,HongKong ReceivedAugust6,2007;AcceptedApril20,2009;PublishedMay11,2009 Copyright: ? 2009 Shim, Galvani. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricteduse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalauthorandsourcearecredite