Monitoring Influenza Activity in the United States A Comparison of Traditional Surveillance Systems with Google Flu Trends 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Monitoring Influenza Activity in the United States A Comparison of Traditional Surveillance Systems with Google Flu Trends 英文参考文献.doc

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Monitoring Influenza Activity in the United States A Comparison of Traditional Surveillance Systems with Google Flu Trends 英文参考文献

MonitoringInfluenzaActivityintheUnitedStates:A ComparisonofTraditionalSurveillanceSystemswith GoogleFluTrends JustinR.Ortiz1*,HongZhou2,3,DavidK.Shay2,KathleenM.Neuzil4,AshleyL.Fowlkes2,ChristopherH. Goss1 1University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America, 2Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America, 3AtlantaResearchandEducationFoundation,Atlanta,Georgia,UnitedStatesofAmerica,4PATH,Seattle,Washington,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background: Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate US influenza-like illness (ILI) rates from internet searches; howeverILIdoesnotnecessarilycorrelatewithactualinfluenzavirusinfections. MethodsandFindings:Influenzaactivitydatafrom2003–04through2007–08wereobtainedfromthreeUSsurveillance systems: Google Flu Trends, CDC Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (CDC ILI Surveillance), and US Influenza Virologic SurveillanceSystem(CDCVirusSurveillance).Pearson’scorrelationcoefficientswith95%confidenceintervals(95%CI)were calculatedtocomparesurveillancedata.Ananalysiswasperformedtoinvestigateoutlierobservationsanddeterminethe extent to which they affected the correlations between surveillance data. Pearson’s correlation coefficient describing GoogleFluTrendsandCDCVirusSurveillanceoverthestudyperiodwas0.72(95%CI:0.64,0.79).Thecorrelationbetween CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance over the same period was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.89). Most of the outlier observationsinbothcomparisonswerefromthe2003–04influenzaseason.Exclusionoftheoutlierobservationsdidnot substantiallyimprovethecorrelationbetweenGoogleFluTrendsandCDCVirusSurveillance(0.82;95%CI:0.76,0.87)or CDCILISurveillanceandCDCVirusSurveillance(0.86;95%CI:0.82,0.90). Conclusions:ThisanalysisdemonstratesthatwhileGoogleFluTrendsishighlycorrelatedwithratesofILI,ithasalower correlationwithsurveillanceforlaboratory-confirmedinfluenza.Mostoftheoutlierobservationsoccurredduringthe2003– 04 influenza season that was character