Optimal Timing of Insecticide Fogging to Minimize Dengue Cases Modeling Dengue Transmission among Various Seasonalities and Transmission Intensities 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Optimal Timing of Insecticide Fogging to Minimize Dengue Cases Modeling Dengue Transmission among Various Seasonalities and Transmission Intensities 英文参考文献.doc

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Optimal Timing of Insecticide Fogging to Minimize Dengue Cases Modeling Dengue Transmission among Various Seasonalities and Transmission Intensities 英文参考文献

OptimalTimingofInsecticideFoggingtoMinimize DengueCases:ModelingDengueTransmissionamong VariousSeasonalitiesandTransmissionIntensities MikaOki*,ToshihikoSunahara,MasahiroHashizume,TaroYamamoto DepartmentofInternationalHealth,InstituteofTropicalMedicine,TheGlobalCenterofExcellence,NagasakiUniversity,Nagasaki,Japan Abstract Background:Dengueinfectionisendemicinmanyregionsthroughouttheworld.Whileinsecticidefoggingtargetingthe vectormosquitoAedesaegyptiisamajorcontrolmeasureagainstdengueepidemics,theimpactofthismethodremains controversial. A previous mathematical simulation study indicated that insecticide fogging minimized cases when conducted soon after peak disease prevalence, although the impact was minimal, possibly because seasonality and population immunity were not considered. Periodic outbreak patterns are also highly influenced by seasonal climatic conditions.Thus,thesefactorsareimportantconsiderationswhenassessingtheeffectofvectorcontrolagainstdengue.We usedmathematicalsimulations toidentifytheappropriatetimingofinsecticidefogging,consideringseasonalchangeof vectorpopulations,andtoevaluateitsimpactonreducingdenguecaseswithvariouslevelsoftransmissionintensity. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:WecreatedtheSusceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered(SEIR)modelofdenguevirus transmission. Mosquito lifespan was assumed to change seasonally and the optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimizedengueincidenceundervariouslengthsofthewetseasonwasinvestigated.Wealsoassessedwhetherinsecticide fogging was equally effective at higher and lower endemic levels by running simulations over a 500-year period with varioustransmissionintensitiestoproduceanendemicstate.Incontrasttothepreviousstudy,theoptimalapplicationof insecticidefoggingwasbetweentheonsetofthewetseasonandtheprevalencepeak.Althoughithaslessimpactinareas thathavehigherendemicityandlongerwetseasons,insecticidefoggingcanpreventaconsiderablenumberofdengue casesifappliedattheoptimaltime. Conclusions/Significance:Theo