Post-Hoc Pattern-Oriented Testing and Tuning of an Existing Large Model Lessons from the Field Vole 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Post-Hoc Pattern-Oriented Testing and Tuning of an Existing Large Model Lessons from the Field Vole 英文参考文献.doc

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Post-Hoc Pattern-Oriented Testing and Tuning of an Existing Large Model Lessons from the Field Vole 英文参考文献

Post-HocPattern-OrientedTestingandTuningofan ExistingLargeModel:LessonsfromtheFieldVole ChristopherJ.Topping1*,TrineDalkvist1,2,VolkerGrimm3 1Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, R?nde, Denmark, 2Department of Environmental Social and Spatial Change, Roskilde University, Roskilde, Denmark, 3DepartmentofEcologicalModeling,HelmholtzCentreforEnvironmentalResearch–UFZ,Leipzig,Germany Abstract Pattern-orientedmodeling(POM)isageneralstrategyformodelingcomplexsystems.InPOM,multiplepatternsobserved at different scales and hierarchical levels are used to optimize model structure, to test and select sub-models of key processes,andforcalibration.Sofar,POMhasbeenusedfordevelopingnewmodelsandformodelsoflowtomoderate complexity.Itremainsunclear,though,whetherthebasicideaofPOMtoutilizemultiplepatterns,couldalsobeusedtotest andpossiblydevelopexistingandestablishedmodelsofhighcomplexity.Here,weusePOMtotest,calibrate,andfurther develop an existing agent-based model of the field vole (Microtus agrestis), which was developed and tested within the ALMaSSframework.Thisframeworkiscomplexbecauseitincludesahigh-resolutionrepresentationofthelandscapeandits dynamics,oftheindividual’sbehavior,andoftheinteractionbetweenlandscapeandindividualbehavior.Resultsoffitting to the range of patterns chosen were generally very good, but the procedure required to achieve this was long and complicated.Toobtaingoodcorrespondencebetweenmodelandtherealworlditwasoftennecessarytomodelthereal worldenvironmentclosely.Wethereforeconcludethatpost-hocPOMisausefulandviablewaytotestahighlycomplex simulation model, but also warn against the dangers of over-fitting to real world patterns that lack details in their explanatory driving factors. To overcome some of these obstacles we suggest the adoption of open-science and open- sourceapproachestoecologicalsimulationmodeling. Citation:ToppingCJ,DalkvistT,GrimmV(2012)Post-HocPattern-OrientedTestingandTuningofanExistingLargeModel:LessonsfromtheFieldVole.PLoS ONE7(