Potential for Rabies Control through Dog Vaccination in Wildlife-Abundant Communities of Tanzania 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Potential for Rabies Control through Dog Vaccination in Wildlife-Abundant Communities of Tanzania 英文参考文献.doc

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Potential for Rabies Control through Dog Vaccination in Wildlife-Abundant Communities of Tanzania 英文参考文献

PotentialforRabiesControlthroughDogVaccinationin Wildlife-AbundantCommunitiesofTanzania MeaganC.Fitzpatrick1*,KatieHampson2,SarahCleaveland2,LaurenAncelMeyers3,4, JeffreyP.Townsend5,AlisonP.Galvani1 1DivisionofEpidemiologyofMicrobialDiseases, Department ofEpidemiologyandPublicHealth,YaleUniversity,NewHaven,Connecticut,UnitedStatesofAmerica, 2Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute for Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences,UniversityofGlasgow,Glasgow,UnitedKingdom,3SectionofIntegrativeBiology,TheUniversityofTexasatAustin,Austin,Texas,UnitedStatesofAmerica, 4SantaFeInstitute,SantaFe,NewMexico,UnitedStatesofAmerica,5PrograminComputationalBiologyandBioinformatics,DepartmentofEcologyandEvolutionary Biology,YaleUniversity,NewHaven,Connecticut,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Caninevaccinationhasbeensuccessfulincontrollingrabiesindiversesettingsworldwide.However,concernsremainthat coverage levels which have previously been sufficient might be insufficient in systems where transmission occurs both between and within populations of domestic dogs and other carnivores. To evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination targetedatdomesticdogswhenwildlifealsocontributestotransmission,weappliedanext-generationmatrixmodelbased oncontracttracingdatafromtheNgorongoroandSerengetiDistrictsinnorthwestTanzania.Wecalculatedcorresponding valuesofR0,anddetermined,forpolicypurposes,theprobabilitiesthatvariousannualvaccinationtargetswouldcontrol the disease, taking into account the empirical uncertainty in our field data. We found that transition rate estimates and corresponding probabilities of vaccination-based control indicate that rabies transmission in this region is driven by transmissionwithindomesticdogs.Differentpatternsofrabiestransmissionbetweenthetwodistrictsexist,withwildlife playing a more important part in Ngorongoro and leading to higher recommended coverage levels in that district. Nonethele