Predicting Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality from Morbidity Data 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Predicting Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality from Morbidity Data 英文参考文献.doc

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Predicting Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality from Morbidity Data 英文参考文献

PredictingPneumoniaandInfluenzaMortalityfrom MorbidityData LiseDenoeud1,2,Cle′mentTurbelin1,2,Se′verineAnsart1,2,Alain-JacquesValleron1,2,3,AntoineFlahault1,2,3,FabriceCarrat1,2,3 * 1Universite′ PierreetMarieCurie-Paris6,UMR-S707,Paris,France,2INSERM,U707,Paris,France,3AssistancePubliqueHo?pitauxdeParis,Ho?pital Saint-Antoine,Paris,France Background.FewEuropeancountriesconductreactivesurveillanceofinfluenzamortality,whereasmostmonitormorbidity. Methodology/Principal Findings. We developed a simple model based on Poisson seasonal regression to predict excess casesofpneumoniaandinfluenzamortalityduringinfluenzaepidemics,basedoninfluenzamorbiditydataandthedominant types/subtypesofcirculatingviruses.Epidemicswereclassifiedinthreelevelsofmortalityburden(‘‘high’’,‘‘moderate’’and ‘‘low’’).Themodelwasfittedon14influenzaseasonsandwasvalidatedonsixsubsequentinfluenzaseasons.Fiveoutofthe sixseasonsinthevalidationsetwerecorrectlyclassified.Theaverageabsolutedifferencebetweenobservedandpredicted mortality was 2.8 per 100,000 (18% of the average excess mortality) and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient was 0.89 (P=0.05).Conclusions/Significance.Themethoddescribedherecanbeusedtoestimatetheinfluenzamortalityburdenin countrieswherespecificpneumoniaandinfluenzamortalitysurveillancedataarenotavailable. Citation: Denoeud L, Turbelin C, Ansart S, Valleron A-J, Flahault A, et al (2007) Predicting Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality from Morbidity Data.PLoSONE2(5):e464.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0000464 INTRODUCTION stiffnessormyalgias.Theage,sex,vaccinationstatusandlocation of cases is also reported. By using population data from regular Influenza epidemics occur each winter, causing substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide [1]. The clinical severity of influenza increases with age and in individuals with underlying healthdisorders[2].Duringseasonalepidemicsmorethan90%of all influenza-related deaths involve persons aged 65 years and more[3]. censuses [http://www.insee.fr/fr/ffc/