Predictive Mapping of Human Risk for West Nile Virus (WNV) Based on Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Predictive Mapping of Human Risk for West Nile Virus (WNV) Based on Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors 英文参考文献.doc

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Predictive Mapping of Human Risk for West Nile Virus (WNV) Based on Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors 英文参考文献

PredictiveMappingofHumanRiskforWestNileVirus (WNV)BasedonEnvironmentalandSocioeconomic Factors IliaRochlin1*,DavidTurbow2,FrankGomez2,DominickV.Ninivaggi1,ScottR.Campbell3 1Suffolk CountyVector Control,Yaphank,NewYork,UnitedStates ofAmerica, 2CollegeofHealth Sciences, TridentUniversityInternational (TUIUniversity),Cypress, California,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3SuffolkCountyArthropod-BorneDiseaseLaboratory,Yaphank,NewYork,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract AWestNilevirus(WNV)humanriskmapwasdevelopedforSuffolkCounty,NewYorkutilizingacase-controlapproachto explore the association between the risk of vector-borne WNV and habitat, landscape, virus activity, and socioeconomic variables derived from publically available datasets. Results of logistic regression modeling for the time period between 2000and2004revealedthathigherproportionofpopulationwithcollegeeducation,increasedhabitatfragmentation,and proximitytoWNVpositivemosquitopoolswerestronglyassociatedwithWNVhumanrisk.Similartopreviousinvestigations fromnorth-centralUS,thisstudyidentifiedmiddleclasssuburbanneighborhoodsastheareaswiththehighestWNVhuman risk. These results contrast with similar studies from the southern and western US, where the highest WNV risk was associated with low income areas. This discrepancy may be due to regional differences in vector ecology, urban environment, or human behavior. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analytical tools were used to integrate the risk factorsinthe2000–2004logisticregressionmodelgeneratingWNVhumanriskmap.In2005–2010,41outof46(89%)of WNVhumancasesoccurredeitherinsideof(30cases)orincloseproximity(11cases)totheWNVhighriskareaspredicted bythe2000–2004model.Thenovelapproachemployedbythisstudymaybeimplementedbyothermunicipal,local,or statepublichealthagenciestoimprovegeographicriskestimatesforvector-bornediseasesbasedonasmallnumberof acutehumancases. Citation:RochlinI,TurbowD,GomezF,NinivaggiDV,CampbellSR(2011)PredictiveMappingofHumanRiskforWestNileVirus(WNV)BasedonEnviron