Projected Demographic Profile of People Living with HIV in Australia Planning for an Older Generation 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Projected Demographic Profile of People Living with HIV in Australia Planning for an Older Generation 英文参考文献.doc

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Projected Demographic Profile of People Living with HIV in Australia Planning for an Older Generation 英文参考文献

ProjectedDemographicProfileofPeopleLivingwithHIV inAustralia:PlanningforanOlderGeneration JamesJansson,DavidP.Wilson* TheKirbyInstitute,UniversityofNewSouthWales,Sydney,Australia Abstract Background:AdvancesinHIVantiretroviraltherapy(ART)hasreducedmortalityinpeoplelivingwithHIV(PLHIV),resulting inanageingpopulationofPLHIV.Knowledgeofdemographicdetailssuchasage,geographicallocationandsex,willaidin theplanningoftrainingandresourceallocationtoeffectivelycareforthefuturecomplexhealthneedsofPLHIV. Methods: An agent-based, stochastic, geographical model was developed to determine the current and future demographic of PLHIV in Australia. Data and parameters were sourced from Australia’s National HIV Registry and peer reviewedliterature.ProcessesthatweresimulatedincludeprogressiontoAIDS,mortalityandinternalmigration. Findings: The model estimates the mean age of PLHIV in Australia is increasing at a rate of 0.49 years each year. The expectedproportionofPLHIVinover55yearsisestimatedtoincreasefrom25.3%in2010to44.2%in2020.Medianageis lowerininner-cityareasofthecapitalcitiesthaninruralareas.TheareaswiththehighestprevalenceofHIVwillcontinueto becapitalcities;however,otherareaswillhavegreaterpercentagegrowthfrom2010to2020. Conclusions:TheageofthepopulationofpeoplelivingwithHIVisexpectedtoincreaseconsiderablyinthefuture.Asthe population of PLHIV ages, specialist clinical training and resource provision in the aged care sector will also need to be addressed. Citation:JanssonJ,WilsonDP(2012)ProjectedDemographicProfileofPeopleLivingwithHIVinAustralia:PlanningforanOlderGeneration.PLoSONE7(8): e38334.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0038334 Editor:JianqingXu,FudanUniversity,China ReceivedFebruary9,2012;AcceptedMay7,2012;PublishedAugust9,2012 Copyright:?2012JanssonandWilson.Thisisanopen-accessarticledistributedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttributionLicense,whichpermits unrestricteduse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalauthorandsourcearecredited. Funding: This st