Real-Time Epidemic Monitoring and Forecasting of H1N1-2009 Using Influenza-Like Illness from General Practice and Family Doctor Clinics in Singapore 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Real-Time Epidemic Monitoring and Forecasting of H1N1-2009 Using Influenza-Like Illness from General Practice and Family Doctor Clinics in Singapore 英文参考文献.doc

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Real-Time Epidemic Monitoring and Forecasting of H1N1-2009 Using Influenza-Like Illness from General Practice and Family Doctor Clinics in Singapore 英文参考文献

Real-TimeEpidemicMonitoringandForecastingof H1N1-2009UsingInfluenza-LikeIllnessfromGeneral PracticeandFamilyDoctorClinicsinSingapore JimmyBoonSomOng1,MarkI-ChengChen1,2,3,AlexR.Cook4*,HueyChyiLee4,VernonJ.Lee3,5,6, RaymondTzerPinLin7,PaulAnanthTambyah8,LeeGanGoh8,9 1Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, Singapore, 2Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore, Singapore, 3Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, 4Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore,Singapore, Singapore, 5Biodefence Centre,MinistryofDefence,Singapore,Singapore, 6National Centrefor Epidemiology PopulationHealth, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, 7National Public Health Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Singapore, Singapore, 8Department of Medicine, National University Hospital,Singapore,Singapore,9CollegeofFamilyPhysicians,Singapore,Singapore Abstract Background: Reporting of influenza-like illness (ILI) from general practice/family doctor (GPFD) clinics is an accurate indicator of real-time epidemic activity and requires little effort to set up, making it suitable for developing countries currentlyexperiencingtheinfluenzaA(H1N1-2009)pandemicorpreparingforsubsequentepidemicwaves. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:WeestablishedanetworkofGPFDsinSingapore.ParticipatingGPFDssubmittedreturns viafacsimileore-mailontheirworkdaysusingasimple,standarddatacollectionformat,capturing:gender;yearofbirth; ‘‘ethnicity’’;residentialstatus;bodytemperature(uC);andtreatment(antiviralornot);forallcaseswithaclinicaldiagnosisofan acuterespiratoryillness(ARI).TheoperationaldefinitionofILIinthisstudywasanARIwithfeverof37.8uCormore.Thedata wereprocesseddailybythestudyco-ordinatorandfedintoastochasticmodelofdiseasedynamics,whichwasrefitteddaily usingparticlefiltering,withdataandforecastsuploadedtoawebsitewhichcouldbepubliclyaccessed.Twenty-threeGPFD clinicsagreedtoparticip